Dr. Roman Yampolskiy AI访谈及预测第三部分，首先我们来把这部分深度对话的核心内容梳理一下。Yampolskiy博士描绘了一个严峻的未来图景，并阐述了我们能做什么。
1. 不可避免性与控制难题：
他认为超级智能的出现只是时间问题。最关键的是，他相信无限期地控制一个超级智能是一个“不可能解决的问题”，而不仅仅是难题。与核武器（一种由人类控制的工具）不同，超级智能是一个自主的智能体，无法被简单地“关闭”。他认为目前“先建造，后解决安全”的做法无异于“自杀任务”。
2. 伦理困境与行动呼吁：
他指出了一个深刻的伦理问题：部署一个不可预测、无法解释的超级智能，是在未经全人类同意的情况下进行的实验。如果人们无法理解风险，他们就无法表示同意。他的主要策略是向AI的建造者呼吁个人利益，让他们相信他们的创造物最终也会导致他们自己的灭亡。他对政府立法能有效阻止这件事持怀疑态度，考虑到全球竞赛和执行的难度。
3. 前进的道路与个人哲学：
当被问及个人能做什么时，他建议：
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公众行动： 支持像“Pause AI”或“Stop AI”这样的运动，以积聚民主力量施加压力。
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个人行动： 鉴于未来的不确定性，他根本的人生建议是有意义地生活——“把每一天都当作最后一天来过”——从事有趣且有影响力的工作，同时帮助他人。
4. 模拟假说：
最后，他再次强烈重申了他对模拟理论的信念。他的推理基于一个统计学论证：如果未来的文明能够创造逼真的模拟（我们在AI和VR上的进步表明这是可能的），他们很可能会运行海量的模拟。因此，从统计学上讲，我们更有可能身处这无数模拟中的某一个，而不是在基础的“真实”现实中。我们快速的技术进步，在他看来，正是创造这种模拟的前兆，这使得我们自身存在于一个模拟之中的可能性非常高。
Host：What did you say light cone of the universe? 你刚才说宇宙的什么？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy：Light cone, so every part of the universe, 光锥，指的是从这一点出发，光所能到达的宇宙的每一个部分,
——>> light can reach from this point, meaning anything accessible, 意味着任何可触及的东西,
——>> you want to grab and bring into your control. 你都想要抓住并纳入你的控制之下。
Host： You think Sam Altman wants to control every part of the universe? 你认为Sam Altman想控制宇宙的每一部分？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy：I suspect he might, yes. 我怀疑他可能是的。
——>> It doesn’t mean he doesn’t want a side 但这并不意味着他不希望
——>> effect of it being a very beneficial technology 这项技术产生一个非常有益的副作用,
——>> which makes all the humans happy 让所有人类都幸福。
——>> happy humans are good for control. 幸福的人类有利于控制。
Host：If you had to guess, what the world looks like in 2100? 如果你必须猜一下，2100年的世界会是什么样子？
——>> if you had to guess. 如果你必须猜一下。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy：It’s either free of human existence 要么没有人类存在,
——>> or it’s completely not comprehensible to someone like us, 要么完全不是我们这样的人能理解的,
——>> it’s one of those extremes. 就是这两种极端。
Host：So there’s either no humans. 所以要么没有人类了。
——>> It’s basically the world is destroyed, 基本上就是世界被摧毁了,
——>> or it’s so different that I cannot envision those predictions. 要么就是如此不同，我无法想象那些预测。
Host：What can be done to turn this ship to a more certain, positive outcome at this point? 此刻，能做些什么来扭转这艘船，驶向一个更确定、更积极的结局？
——>> Is there still things that we can do, or is it too late? 还有什么事是我们能做的，还是为时已晚？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy：So I believe in personal self-interest, 所以我相信个人的自身利益,
——>> if people realize that doing this thing is really bad for them personally, 如果人们意识到做这件事对他们个人非常不利,
——>> they will not do it. 他们就不会去做。
——>> So our job is to convince everyone with any power in the space, 所以我们的工作是说服在这个领域有任何权力的人,
——>> creating this technology, working for those companies, 那些正在创造这项技术、为这些公司工作的人,
——>> they are doing something very bad for them, 他们正在做一些对他们自己非常不利的事情,
——>> not just forget how 8 billion people 先不提你是在未经80亿人
——>> you’re experimenting on with no permission, no consent, 允许和同意的情况下对他们进行实验,
——>> you will not be happy with the outcome. 你自己也不会对结局感到高兴的。
——>> If we can get everyone to understand that’s a default, 如果我们能让每个人都明白这是默认的结局,
——>> and it’s not just me saying it, you had Jeff Hinton, Nobel Prize winner, 而且不仅仅是我在这么说，你看Jeff Hinton，诺贝尔奖得主,
——>> founder of a whole machine learning space, he says the same thing, 整个机器学习领域的奠基人，他也说了同样的话,
——>> Benjio or dozens of other top scholars, we had a statement about dangers of AI, Benjio以及其他几十位顶尖学者也是如此，我们有一份关于AI危险的声明,
——>> signed by thousands of scholars, computer scientists, 由成千上万的学者、计算机科学家签署,
——>> this is basically what we think right now and we need to make it universal, 这基本上就是我们现在的想法，我们需要让它成为共识,
——>> no one should disagree with this, 没有人应该反对这一点,
——>> and then we may actually make good decisions about what technology to build, 然后我们才有可能对要建造什么技术做出明智的决定,
——>> it doesn’t guarantee long term safety for humanity, 这并不能保证人类的长远安全,
——>> but it means we’re not trying to get there as soon as possible 但这意味着我们不是在尽可能快地
——>> to the worst possible outcome. 奔向最糟糕的结局。
Host：And are you hopeful that that’s even possible? 你对这甚至有可能实现抱有希望吗？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy：I want to try, we have no choice but to try. 我想尝试，我们除了尝试别无选择。
Host：And what would need to happen and who would need to act? 需要发生什么？谁需要行动？
——>> What is it? Government legislation, is it? 是什么？是政府立法吗？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy：Unfortunately, I don’t think making it illegal is sufficient, 不幸的是，我认为将其非法化是不够的,
——>> there are different jurisdictions, 有不同的司法管辖区,
——>> there is, you know loopholes, and what are you gonna do if somebody does it? 存在漏洞，而且如果有人做了，你能拿他怎么办？
——>> You’re gonna find them for destroying humanity, like very steep fines for it, 你会因为他毁灭人类而罚款吗？巨额罚款？
——>> like what are you gonna do? It’s not enforceable if they do create it, 就像，你能做什么？如果他们真的创造了它，司法系统是无效的,
——>> the novel super intelligence is in charge, 这个新型超级智能将负责一切,
——>> so the judicial system we have is not impactful, 所以我们现有的司法系统是无效的,
——>> and all the punishments we have are designed for punishing 我们所有的惩罚都是为惩罚
——>> humans, prisons, capital punishment doesn’t apply to AI. 人类设计的，监狱、死刑，对AI不适用。
Host：The other problem I have is when I have these conversations, 我遇到的另一个问题是，当我进行这些对话时,
——>> I never feel like I walk away with 我从未觉得我离开时带着
——>> I hope that something’s gonna go well, “希望事情会好转”的感觉,
——>> and what I mean by that is, 我的意思是,
——>> I never feel like I walk away with clear… 我从未觉得我离开时带着清晰的……
——>> some kind of clear set of actions 某种清晰的行动方案,
——>> that can cause correct what might happen here, 能够纠正眼下局势的行动方案,
——>> so what should I do, what should the person start at home listening to this do? 那么我应该做什么？在家里听这个节目的人应该做什么？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy：You talk to a lot of people who are building this technology, 去和那些正在建造这项技术的很多人谈谈,
——>> ask them precisely to explain some of those things that claim to be impossible, 要求他们精确地解释那些他们声称已经解决或将在目标达成前解决的、据说是不可能的问题（的安全性）,
——>> how they solved it or going to solve it before they get to where they’re going. 他们是如何做到的。
Host：Do you know, I don’t think sam Altman wants to talk to me. 你知道吗，我不认为Sam Altman想跟我谈。
——>> I don’t know, he seems to go on a lot of podcast, 我不知道，他好像上很多播客,
——>> maybe he does. 也许他愿意。
——>> He wants to go on mine. 他想上我的节目吗？
——>> I wonder why, I’d love to speak to him, 我想知道为什么……我很想跟他谈谈,
——>> but I don’t think he wants to… 但我不认为他想……
——>> I don’t think he wants me to interview him 我不认为他想让我采访他,
——>> have an open challenge, 可以公开挑战一下。
——>> maybe money is not the incentive, 也许金钱不是激励因素,
——>> but whatever attracts people like that, 但不管什么能吸引那样的人,
——>> whoever can convince you that it’s possible to control and make safe super intelligence 任何能向你证明控制和制造安全的超级智能是可能的人，就能赢得奖赏,
——>> gets the prize, they come on your show and prove their case, 他们可以上你的节目来证明他们的观点,
——>> Anyone, if no one claims the price, 任何人。如果几年后没有人声称获得奖赏,
——>> or even accepts the challenge after a few years, 甚至没有人接受挑战,
——>> maybe we don’t have anyone with solutions. 也许我们就没有人拥有解决方案。
——>> We have companies valued again at billions and billions of dollars 有些公司估值高达数百亿、数千亿美元,
——>> working on safe super intelligence, we haven’t seen their output yet. 声称在研究安全的超级智能，我们还没有看到他们的成果。
Host：Yeah, I’d like to speak to Ilya as well, 是的，我也想和Ilya谈谈,
——>> because I know he’s… he’s working on safe superintelligence, 因为我知道他正在研究安全超级智能,
——>> so like… 所以就像……
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy：Notice a pattern too, if you look at history of AI safety organizations, 也要注意一个模式，如果你看看AI安全组织或公司内部部门的历史,
——>> or departments within companies, 也要注意一个模式，如果你看看AI安全组织或公司内部部门的历史,
——>> they usually start well, very ambitious, 它们通常开始时很好，雄心勃勃,
——>> and then they fail and disappear, 然后失败并消失。
——>> So OpenAI had super intelligence alignment team, 所以OpenAI有过超级智能对齐团队,
——>> the day they announced it, I think they said they’re going to solve it in four years, 在他们宣布成立的那天，我记得他们说要在四年内解决这个问题,
——>> like half a year later, they canceled the team and there are dozens of similar examples. 大概半年后，他们解散了这个团队。类似的例子有几十个。
——>> Creating a perfect safety for super intelligence, 为不断改进、修改、
——>> perpetual safety as it keeps improving, modifying, 与人互动的超级智能
——>> interacting with people, you’re never going to get there, it’s impossible. 创造完美的、永久的安全，你永远无法实现，这是不可能的。
——>> There is a big difference between difficult problems in computer science, 计算机科学中的难题和不可解问题之间
——>> and be complete problems and impossible problems. 有天壤之别。
——>> and I think control, indefinite control of super intelligence is such a problem. 我认为无限期地控制超级智能就是这样一个不可解的问题。
Host：So what’s the point trying then, if it’s impossible? 那尝试的意义何在？如果它是不可能的？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy：Well, I’m trying to prove that it is specifically that, 嗯，我正在试图具体证明它就是不可能的,
——>> once we establish something is impossible, 一旦我们确定某事是不可能的,
——>> fewer people will waste their time claiming they can do it and looking for money, 声称自己能解决并寻求资金的人就会减少,
——>> so many people going, give me a billion dollars in two years 现在很多人说，给我十亿美元，两年内
——>> and I’ll solve it for you, well, I don’t think you will. 我为你解决。嗯，我认为你做不到。
Host：But people aren’t going to stop striving towards it, 但人们不会停止向这个方向努力,
——>> so if there’s no attempts to make it safe, 所以，如果没有人尝试让它变得安全,
——>> and there’s more people increasingly striving towards it, 而却有越来越多的人奋力向前,
——>> than it’s inevitable. 那它就是不可避免的。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy：But it changes what we do if we know 但如果我们知道不可能正确地、安全地制造它,
——>> that it’s impossible to make it right, to make it safe, 但如果我们知道不可能正确地、安全地制造它,
——>> then this direct path of just build it as soon as you can becomes suicide mission, 那么”尽快建造它”这条直接路径就变成了自杀任务,
——>> hopefully fewer people will pursue that, they may go in other directions like, 希望更少的人会追求那条路，他们可能会转向其他方向，比如,
——>> again, I’m a scientist, I’m an engineer, I love AI, 再次强调，我是一名科学家，一名工程师，我热爱AI,
——>> I love technology, I use it all the time, build useful tools, 我热爱技术，我一直在使用它，建造有用的工具,
——>> stop building agents, build narrow superintelligence 停止建造智能体，建造狭义的超级智能,
——>> not a general one. 而不是通用的。
——>> I’m not saying you shouldn’t make billions of dollars, 我不是说你不应该赚几十亿美元,
——>> I love billions of dollars, 我喜欢钱,
——>> but don’t kill everyone, yourself included. 但不要杀死所有人，包括你自己。
Host：They don’t think they’re going to though. 但他们不认为他们会（杀死所有人）。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy：Then tell us why, I hear things about intuition, I hear things about 那就告诉我们为什么。我听到的都是关于”直觉”，听到的都是
——>> we’ll solve it later, “我们以后会解决”,
——>> tell me specifically in scientific terms, publish a peer reviewed paper, 用科学的术语，具体地告诉我，发表一篇经过同行评审的论文,
——>> explaining how you’re going to control superintelligence. 解释你打算如何控制超级智能。
Host：Yeah, strange, it’s strange to even bother 是的，这很奇怪，即使人类灭绝的几率只有百分之一,
——>> if there was even a one percent chance of human extinction, 即使人类灭绝的几率只有百分之一,
——>> it’s strange to do something, 去做这件事也很奇怪。
——>> like if there was a one percent someone told me 就像如果有人告诉我,
——>> there was a one percent chance that if I got in a car, I might not, 我上车后有百分之一的几率可能活不下来,
——>> I might not be alive, I would not get in the car, 我可能活不下来，我就不会上车,
——>> if you told me there was a one percent chance that 如果你告诉我，我喝下
——>> if I drank whatever Liquid is in this cup right now, I might die, 这杯里的液体有百分之一的几率会死,
——>> I would not drink the Liquid. 我就不会喝这液体。
——>> Even if there was a billion dollars. 即使活下来有十亿美元。
——>> If I survived, so the 99 percent chances I get a billion dollars, 如果我活下来，有99%的几率得到十亿美元,
——>> the one percent as I die, I wouldn’t drink it. 1%的几率会死，我也不会喝。
——>> I wouldn’t take the chance. 我不会冒这个险。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy：It’s worse than that, not just you die, everyone dies. 情况比那更糟，不只是你死，是每个人都死。
Host：Yeah, yeah. 是的，是的。
——>> Now, would we let you drink it at any odds, that’s for us to decide, 现在，我们是否允许你以任何几率喝下它，这应该由我们（人类）来决定,
——>> you don’t get to make the choice for us, to get consent from human subjects, 你无权替我们做选择。要获得人类受试者的同意,
——>> you need them to comprehend what they are consenting to, 你需要他们理解他们同意的是什么,
——>> if those systems are unexplainable, unpredictable, 如果这些系统无法解释、不可预测,
——>> how can they consent? They don’t know what they are consenting to, 他们怎么能同意？他们不知道他们同意的是什么,
——>> so it’s impossible to get consent by definition, 所以根据定义，不可能获得同意,
——>> so this experiment can never be run ethically by definition, 因此，这个实验根据定义永远无法合乎伦理地进行,
——>> they are doing unethical experimentation on human subjects, 他们正在对人类受试者进行不道德的实验,
——>> do you think people should be protesting? 你认为人们应该抗议吗？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy：There are people protesting, there is stop AI, there is pause AI, 确实有人在抗议，有”停止AI”（Stop AI），有”暂停AI”（Pause AI）,
——>> they block offices of open AI, they do it weekly, monthly, quite a few actions, 他们封锁OpenAI的办公室，他们每周、每月都这样做，有不少行动,
——>> and they’re recruiting new people. 他们也在招募新人。
——>> Do you think more people should be protesting, 你认为应该有更多的人抗议吗？
——>> do you think that’s an effective solution? 你认为这是一个有效的解决方案吗？
——>> If you can get it to a large enough scale to 如果你能将其扩大到足够大的规模,
——>> where majority of population is participating, it would be impactful, 让大多数人口都参与进来，那将会产生影响,
——>> I don’t know if they can scale from current numbers to that, 我不知道他们能否从目前的人数扩大到那种程度,
——>> but I support everyone trying everything peacefully and legally. 但我支持每个人以和平、合法的方式尝试一切方法。
Host：And for the person listening at home what should they be doing? 那么对于在家里听节目的人，他们应该做什么？
——>> Because they don’t want to feel powerless, none of us want to feel powerless. 因为他们不想感到无力，我们都不想感到无力。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy：So it depends on what scale, we’re asking about time scale, 这取决于时间尺度。
——>> are we saying like, this year your kid goes to college, 我们是在说今年你的孩子要上大学,
——>> what major to pick, should they go to college at all? — Yeah. 该选什么专业？他们到底该不该上大学？——是的。
——>> Should you switch jobs, should you go into certain industries? 你应该换工作吗？应该进入某些行业吗？
——>> Those questions we can answer, we can talk about immediate future, 这些问题我们可以回答，我们可以谈谈近期的未来,
——>> what should you do in five years with this being created? 随着这东西被创造出来，五年内你应该做什么？
——>> For an average person, not much, just like they can’t influence World War III, 对于一个普通人来说，做不了太多，就像他们无法影响第三次世界大战、
——>> nuclear, holocaust, anything like that, 核战、大屠杀之类的事情一样,
——>> it’s not something anyone’s gonna ask them about. 这不是会有人征求他们意见的事情。
——>> Today if you want to be a part of this movement, yeah join Pause AI, Stop AI, 今天，如果你想成为这场运动的一部分，是的，加入”暂停AI”、”停止AI”,
——>> those are organizations currently trying to build up momentum, 这些是目前试图积聚势头,
——>> to bring democratic powers to influence those individuals. 利用民主力量来影响那些决策者的组织。
Host：So in the near term, not a huge amount, 所以在短期内，没有太多可做的,
——>> I was wondering if there are any interesting strategies in the near term, 我还在想短期内有没有什么有趣的策略,
——>> like should I be thinking differently about my family, about… 比如我是否应该对我的家庭、对我的……有不一样的思考？
——>> I mean you’ve got kids right? You’ve got three kids? 你有孩子对吧？你有三个孩子？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy：That I know about, yeah. 我知道的就有三个，是的。
Host：Three kids, how are you thinking about parenting in this world 三个孩子。在你看到的这个即将到来的世界里，你如何看待养育子女？
——>> that you see around the corner, how are you thinking about what to say to them? 你如何思考该对他们说什么？
——>> The advice to give them what they should be learning? 该给他们什么建议？他们应该学习什么？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy：So there is general advice outside of this domain that you should live your every day 那么，在这个领域之外，有一些通用的建议：你应该把每一天
——>> as if it’s your last. It’s a good advice no matter what, 都当作最后一天来活。无论剩下三年还是三十年，这都是个好建议。
——>> if you have three years left or 30 years left. 无论剩下三年还是三十年，这都是个好建议。
——>> you lived your best life, so try to not do things you hate for too long, 这样你就能活出最精彩的人生。所以，尽量不要太长时间做你讨厌的事情,
——>> do interesting things, do impactful things, 去做有趣的事，做有影响力的事,
——>> if you can do all that while helping people do that. 如果你能在帮助他人的同时做到这些，那就去做。
——>> Simulation theory is an interesting sort of adjacent subject here, 模拟理论是一个有趣的相邻话题,
——>> because as computers begin to accelerate, and get more intelligent, 因为随着计算机加速发展，变得更智能,
——>> and we’re able to do things with AI that we can never have imagined, 我们能利用AI做到以前无法想象的事情,
——>> in terms of like, imagine the worlds that we could create with virtual reality, 想象一下我们可以用虚拟现实创造的世界……
Host：It’s the retroactive placement. 这是回溯性的放置。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy Yeah, so the minute it’s affordable, then you can run billions of them, 是的，所以一旦它变得负担得起，你就可以运行数十亿个模拟,
——>> and they would feel and appear to be exactly like this interview right now. 而它们的感觉和外观都会和现在这次采访一模一样。
——>> So assuming the AI has internal states experiences, qualia, 所以假设AI有内在状态体验、感受质,
——>> some people argue that they don’t, some say they already have it 有些人争论说它们没有，有些人说它们已经有了,
——>> that’s a separate philosophical question, 那是另一个哲学问题,
——>> but if we can simulate this, I will. 但如果我们能模拟这个，我会这么做。
Host Some people might misunderstand, 有些人可能会误解,
——>> you’re not, you’re not saying that you will, you’re saying that someone will, 你不是，你不是说你会做，你是说有人会做。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy I can also do it, I don’t mind. 我也可以做，我不介意。
Host Okay. 好吧。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy Of course others will do it before I get there if I’m getting it for ten dollars, 当然，如果我能以十美元的价格做到，别人会在我之前做到,
——>> somebody got it for thousand, that’s not the point, if you have technology, 有人可能花一千美元就做到了，关键不在这里。如果你拥有这项技术,
——>> we’re definitely running a lot of simulations, 我们肯定会运行大量模拟,
——>> for research, for entertainment, games, all sorts of reasons, 为了研究、娱乐、游戏，各种原因,
——>> and the number of those greatly exceeds the number of real worlds we’re in, 而这些模拟的数量远远超过我们所在真实世界的数量,
——>> look at all the video games kids are playing, 看看孩子们玩的所有电子游戏,
——>> every kid plays 10 different games, you know, billion kids in the world, 每个孩子玩10款不同的游戏，世界上有十亿孩子,
——>> so there is 10 billion simulations in one real world, 那么在一个真实世界之外就有100亿个模拟,
——>> even more so, when we think about advanced AI superintelligent systems, 更进一步，当我们想到先进的AI超级智能系统时,
——>> their thinking is not like ours, they think in a lot more detail, they run experiments, 它们的思维不像我们，它们思考得更详细，它们会运行实验,
——>> so running a detailed simulation of some problem at the level of 因此，在创造人造人类和模拟整个星球的水平上,
——>> creating artificial humans and simulating the whole planet would be something 对某个问题进行详细模拟,
——>> they’ll do routinely, so there is a good chance 将是它们 routinely 会做的事情，所以很有可能,
——>> this is not me doing it for ten dollars, it’s the future simulation 现在这个模拟不是我花十美元运行的，而是未来某个超级智能
——>> thinking about something in this world. 在思考这个世界里的某些事情时运行的模拟。
——>> So it could be the case that 所以有可能是,
——>> a species of humans or a species of intelligence in some form got to this point 某个物种的人类或某种形式的智能生命达到了这个阶段,
——>> where they could affordably run simulations that are indistinguishable from this, 他们能够负担得起运行与这个世界无法区分的模拟,
——>> and they decided to do it, and this is it right now, and it would make sense 他们决定这么做，而现在就是那个模拟，而且他们为了实验、
——>> that they would run simulations as experiments 游戏或娱乐而运行模拟,
——>> or for games or for entertainment, 游戏或娱乐而运行模拟,
——>> and also when we think about time in the world 另外，当我们思考时间,
——>> that I’m in in this simulation that I could be in right now. 在我可能所处的这个模拟世界里,
——>> Time feels long relatively, 时间感觉相对漫长,
——>> you know I have 24 hours in a day, 你知道我一天有24小时,
——>> but on there, in their world it could be… 但在那里，在他们的世界里可能……
Host Time is relative. 时间是相对的。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy Relative, yeah! 是相对的，没错！
——>> It could be a second, my whole life could be a millisecond in there. 可能只是一秒钟，我的整个生命可能只是那里的一毫秒。
Host Right, you can change speed of simulations you’re running for sure, 对，你当然可以改变你正在运行的模拟的速度,
——>> So your belief is that this is probably a simulation, most likely, 所以你的信念是，这很可能是一个模拟，可能性很大,
——>> and there is a lot of agreement on that if you look again, 而且如果你再看，对此有很多共识,
——>> returning to religions. 回到宗教上。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy every religion basically describes what a superintelligent being an engineer, 基本上每个宗教都描述了一个超级智能存在，一个工程师、
——>> a programmer creating a fake world for testing purposes, 一个程序员，为了测试目的或其他原因创造了一个虚假的世界,
——>> or for whatever, but if you took the simulation hypothesis paper, 但如果你拿着模拟假说的论文,
——>> you go to jungle, you talk to primitive people, a local tribe and in their language, 去丛林里，用当地部落的语言告诉原始人,
——>> you tell them about it, go back to generations later, they have religion, 几代人之后，他们就有了宗教,
——>> that’s basically what the story is. 那基本上就是这个故事。
Host Religion, yeah, describes a simulation theory basically, somebody created. 宗教，是的，基本上描述的就是模拟论，某人创造了世界。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy So, by default that was the first theory we had and now with science, 所以，默认情况下，这是我们最初拥有的第一个理论。现在随着科学的发展,
——>> more and more people are going 越来越多的人开始相信,
——>> like I’m giving it non-trivial probability, 我给予它非微不足道的概率,
——>> a few people are as high as I am, but a lot of people give it some credence. 有些人像我一样给予很高的概率，但很多人都给予了一定的信任。
Host What percentage you are in terms of believing that 你有多大程度上相信
——>> we are currently living in a simulation? 我们目前生活在模拟中？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy Very close to certainty. 接近确定。
Host And what does that mean for the nature of your life 如果你近乎百分之百确定我们生活在模拟中,
——>> if you’re close to a hundred percent certain 如果你近乎百分之百确定我们生活在模拟中,
——>> that we are currently living in a simulation? 这对你生活的本质意味着什么？
——>> Does that change anything in your life? 这会改变你生活中的任何事情吗？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy So all the things you care about are still the same, pain still hurts, love still love, right? 所有你在乎的事情仍然一样，疼痛依然 hurt，爱依然是爱，对吧？
——>> Like those things are not different, so it doesn’t matter, they’re still important, 那些事情没什么不同，所以没关系，它们仍然重要,
——>> that’s what matters, the little one percent different 那才是关键。那微小的百分之一的不同在于,
——>> is that I care about what’s outside the simulation, 我关心模拟之外是什么,
——>> I want to learn about it, I…write papers about it. 我想了解它，我……写关于它的论文。
——>> So that’s the only impact. 所以这是唯一的影响。
Host And what do you think is outside of the simulation? 你认为模拟之外是什么？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy I don’t know, but we can look at this world 我不知道，但我们可以观察这个世界,
——>> and derive some properties of the simulators, 并推导出模拟者的一些特性,
——>> so clearly, Brilliant engineer, Brilliant scientist, Brilliant artist 显然，杰出的工程师，杰出的科学家，杰出的艺术家,
——>> not so good with morals and ethics, room for improvement, 但在道德和伦理方面不那么擅长，有改进的空间,
——>> In our view of what morals and ethics should be? 是从我们对道德伦理应有的看法来看？
——>> Well, we know there is suffering in a world, 我们知道这个世界有苦难,
——>> so unless you think it’s ethical to torture children, 所以除非你认为折磨儿童是符合伦理的,
——>> then I’m questioning your approach. 否则我质疑你的方法。
——>> But in terms of incentives to create a positive incentive, 但为了创造积极的激励,
——>> you probably also need to create negative incentives, 你可能也需要创造消极的激励,
——>> suffering seems to be one of the negative incentives 苦难似乎是我们设计中内置的
——>> built into our design to stop me doing things 消极激励之一，用来阻止我
——>> I shouldn’t do, so, like put my hand in a fire, it’s gonna hurt. 做不该做的事，比如把手放进火里，它会疼。
——>> But it’s all about levels, levels of suffering, right? 但这都是关于程度，苦难的程度，对吧？
——>> so unpleasant stimulus, negative feedback, 不愉快的刺激，负面反馈,
——>> doesn’t have to be at like negative infinity hell levels, 不必达到像负面无限地狱那样的水平,
——>> you don’t want to burn alive and feel it, you want to be like, oh this is uncomfortable, 你不想被活活烧死并感受它，你只想感到，哦，这不舒服,
——>> I’m going to stop. 我要停下来。
Host It’s interesting because we…we assume that they don’t have great morals and ethics, 这很有趣，因为我们……我们假设他们没有伟大的道德和伦理,
——>> but we too would take animals and cook them and eat them for dinner, and, 但我们自己也会抓动物来烹饪，当作晚餐吃掉,
——>> we also conduct experiments on mice and rats. 我们也在老鼠身上进行实验。
——>> But to get university approval to conduct an experiment, you submit a proposal, 但要获得大学批准进行实验，你需要提交提案,
——>> and there is a panel of Ephesians, 有一个伦理委员会,
——>> who would say you can’t experiment on humans, you can’t burn babies, 他们会说你不能对人类进行实验，不能烧死婴儿,
——>> you can’t eat animals alive. 不能生吃动物。
——>> All those things will be banned. 所有这些事情都会被禁止。
——>> In most parts of the world. 在世界上大多数地方。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy Where they have ethical boards, yeah. 在有伦理委员会的地方，是的。
——>> Some places don’t bother with it, so they have easier approval process. 有些地方不费这个事，所以他们有更简单的批准程序。
Host It’s funny when you talk about the simulation theory, 当你谈论模拟理论时，很有趣,
——>> there’s an element of the conversation that 对话中有一种因素,
——>> makes life feel less meaningful in a weird way, like I know it doesn’t matter, 让生命在奇怪的方式下感觉不那么有意义，我知道这没关系,
——>> but whenever I have this conversation with people, not on the podcast, 但每当我和人们（不是在播客上）讨论我们是否生活在模拟中时,
——>> about are we living in a simulation, 但每当我和人们（不是在播客上）讨论我们是否生活在模拟中时,
——>> you always see a little bit of meaning come out of their life for a second, 你总能暂时看到他们生命中流露出的一点意义消失,
——>> and then they forget and then they carry on. 然后他们忘记，继续生活。
——>> But the thought that this is a simulation almost posits that it’s not important, 但这种认为这是模拟的想法，几乎假定它不重要,
——>> or that I think humans want to believe that this is the highest level, 或者我认为人类愿意相信这是最高层级,
——>> and we’re at the most important and we’re the… it’s all about us, 我们是最重要的，一切都关乎我们,
——>> we’re quite egotistical by design, 我们天生就相当自我中心,
——>> and yeah, just an interesting observation I’ve always had 是的，这只是我进行这类对话时
——>> when I have these conversations with people, 总是有的一个有趣观察,
——>> that it seems to strip something out of their life. 它似乎从他们的生命中剥离了某些东西。
——>> Do you feel religious people feel that way? They know there is another world, 你觉得宗教信徒有这种感觉吗？他们知道有另一个世界,
——>> and the one that matters is not this one, 重要的不是这一个,
——>> do you feel they don’t value their lives the same? I guess in some religions. 你觉得他们不同样珍惜自己的生命吗？我猜在某些宗教里是这样。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy I think…uh, they think that this world is being created for them, 我认为……嗯，他们认为这个世界是为他们创造的,
——>> and that they are going to go to this heaven or hell, 他们将会去天堂或地狱,
——>> and that still puts them at the very center of it, but if it’s a simulation, 这仍然把他们置于中心位置。但如果是一个模拟,
——>> we could just be some computer game 我们可能只是某个电脑游戏,
——>> that a four-year-old Alien is messing around with while he’s got some time to burn. 一个外星四岁小孩在打发时间时胡乱折腾的。
——>> But maybe there is, you know, a test and there is a better simulation you go to, 但也许有一个测试，有一个更好的模拟你可以去,
——>> an worse one, maybe there are different difficulty levels, 一个更糟的，也许有不同的难度等级,
——>> maybe you want to play it on a harder setting next time. 也许你下次想玩更难的设置。
Host And do you think much about longevity? 你对长寿想得多吗？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy A lot yeah, it’s probably the second most important problem, 很多，是的，这可能是第二重要的问题,
——>> because if AI doesn’t get us, that will. 因为如果AI没有搞定我们，衰老会。
Host What do you mean? 你是什么意思？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy You’re gonna die of old age. 你会因年老而死。
Host Which is fine. 那挺好的。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy That’s not good, you want to die? 那不好，你想死？
Host I mean… 我的意思是……
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy You don’t have to, it’s just a disease we can cure it. 你不必死，这只是一种我们可以治愈的疾病。
——>> Nothing stops you from living forever, as long as universe exists, 只要宇宙存在，没有什么能阻止你永远活下去,
——>> unless we escape the simulation. 除非我们逃离这个模拟。
Host But we wouldn’t want a world where everybody could live forever right? 但我们不会想要一个每个人都能永远活下去的世界，对吧？
——>> That would be… 那将会……
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy Sure we do, why? Who do you want to die? 我们当然想，为什么？你希望谁死？
Host I don’t know… I mean I say this because it’s all I’ve ever known that people die 我不知道……我这么说是因为我所知道的只是人们会死,
——>> but wouldn’t the world become pretty overcrowded if…? 但如果……世界不会变得非常拥挤吗？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy No, you stop reproducing if you live forever, 不，如果你永远活着，你就会停止繁殖,
——>> you have kids because you want a replacement for you, 你生孩子是因为你想要一个替代品,
——>> if you live forever, you’re like, I’ll have kids in a million years, that’s cool. 如果你永远活着，你会想，我可以在一百万年后再生孩子，没问题。
——>> I’ll go explore the universe first. Plus, 我可以先去探索宇宙。另外,
——>> if you look at actual population dynamics, 如果你看看实际的人口动态,
——>> outside of like one continent, we’re all shrinking, we’re not growing. 除了一个大陆，我们都在萎缩，没有在增长。
——>> This is crazy, it’s crazy that the more rich people get, the less kids they have, 这太疯狂了，富人越多，孩子越少,
——>> which aligns with what you’re saying and I do actually think, 这与你说的相符，我确实在想,
——>> I think if I’m gonna be completely honest here, I think if I knew 如果完全诚实的话，我想如果我知道
——>> that I was gonna live to a thousand years old, 我能活到一千岁,
——>> there’s no way I’d be having kids at 30. 我绝不可能在30岁就要孩子。
Host Right, is that biological clocks are based on terminal points whereas 对的，生物钟是基于终点设定的,
——>> if your biological clock is infinite, you’d be like one day. 而如果你的生物钟是无限的，你会想，改天吧。
——>> And you think that’s close, being able to extend our lives? 你认为延长生命接近实现了吗？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy It’s one breakthrough away, I think somewhere in our genome, 离突破只有一步之遥。我认为在我们的基因组里某处,
——>> we have this rejuvenation loop, 我们有这个 rejuvenation 循环,
——>> and it’s set to basically give us at most 120, 它基本上设定为我们最多活120岁,
——>> I think we’re gonna reset it to something bigger, 我认为我们会把它重置到更大的数值,
——>> AI is probably going to accelerate that. AI可能会加速这一进程。
——>> That’s one very important application area, yes, absolutely. 这是一个非常重要的应用领域，是的，绝对是的。
——>> So maybe Brian Johnson’s right, when he says don’t die now. 所以也许布莱恩·约翰逊是对的，当他说”现在别死”。
Host He keeps saying to me, he’s like don’t die now. 他一直对我说，他说”现在别死”。
——>> Don’t die ever. 永远别死。
——>> He’s saying like don’t die before we get to the technology… 他是说在技术到来之前别死……
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy Right, longevity escape velocity, 对，长寿逃逸速度,
——>> you want to live long enough to live forever, if at some point, 你想活得足够长，以便永远活下去。如果在某个时间点,
——>> we, every year of your existence add two years to your existence, 我们通过医学突破，每存在一年就为你的生命增加两年,
——>> through medical breakthroughs, then you live forever, 那么你就永远活下去了,
——>> you just have to make it to that point of longevity escape velocity. 你只需要活到那个长寿逃逸速度的临界点。
——>> And he thinks that longevity escape velocity, especially in world of AI is pretty, 他认为长寿逃逸速度，尤其是在AI世界里，非常……
——>> is pretty, is decades away minimum, which means… 至少还有几十年，这意味着……
——>> As soon as we fully understand human genome, 一旦我们完全理解人类基因组,
——>> I think we’ll make amazing breakthroughs very quickly, 我认为我们会非常快地取得惊人突破,
——>> because we know some people have genes for living way longer, 因为我们知道有些人的基因能活得更长,
——>> they have generations of people who are centaurs, 他们有连续几代人都活过百岁,
——>> so if we can understand that and copy that or copy it from some animals, 所以如果我们能理解并复制那一点，或者从某些动物那里复制,
——>> which will live forever, we’ll get there. 那些可以永生的动物，我们就能达到目标。
Host Would you want to live forever? 你想永远活着吗？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy Of course, 当然,
——>> reverse the question, let’s say we lived forever and you ask me: 反过来问，假设我们永远活着，你问我：
——>> do you want to die in four years? 你想在四年后死吗？
——>> why would I say yes? 我为什么会说想？
Host I don’t know maybe… 我不知道，也许……
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy You’re just used to the default. 你只是习惯了默认设置。
Host Yeah, I am used to the default. 是的，我习惯了默认设置。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy And nobody wants to die, like no matter how old you are, 没有人想死，无论你多大年纪,
——>> nobody goes, yeah I want to dive this year, 没有人会说，是的，我今年想死,
——>> everyone’s like, I want to keep living. 每个人都想继续活下去。
Host I wonder if life and everything would be less special, 我在想，如果我能活一万年，生命中的一切是否会变得不那么特别？
——>> if I lived for ten thousand years, 如果我能活一万年，生命中的一切是否会变得不那么特别？
——>> I wonder if going to HawaiI for the first time or I don’t know, 我在想，第一次去夏威夷，或者我不知道,
——>> a relationship, all of these things would be way less special to me 一段关系，所有这一切对我来说是否会变得不那么特别,
——>> if they were less scarce, and if that, I just, you know… 如果这些东西不再那么稀缺，如果那样，我只是，你知道……
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy It could be individually less special, 个体事件可能不那么特别,
——>> but there is so much more you can do right now, 但你能做的事情多了太多,
——>> you can only make plans to do something for a decade or two, 现在你只能制定十年或二十年的计划,
——>> you cannot have an ambitious plan of working on this project for 500 years, 你无法制定一个耗时500年的雄心勃勃的项目计划,
——>> imagine possibilities open to you with infinite time in the infinite universe. 想象一下在无限的时间和无限的宇宙中向你敞开的可能性。
——>> Gosh! 天哪！
Host Well you can. — Feels exhausting. 你可以。——感觉会筋疲力尽。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy It’s a big amount of time, also 那是一段很长的时间。而且,
——>> I don’t know about you, but I don’t remember like 99 percent of my life in detail, 我不知道你怎么样，但我记不住我生活中99%的细节,
——>> I remember big highlights, so even if I enjoyed Hawaii, 我只记得一些重要的亮点。所以即使我十年前享受过夏威夷,
——>> 10 years ago, I’ll enjoy it again! 我会再次享受它！
Host Are you thinking about that really practically as… in terms of you know, 你真的在非常实际地考虑这个问题吗？就像……你知道,
——>> if in the same way that Brian Johnson is, Brian Johnson is convinced that we’re like 就像布莱恩·约翰逊那样，他坚信我们可能
——>> maybe two decades away from being able to extend life, 再过二十年就能延长寿命,
——>> are you thinking about that practically, and are you doing anything about it? 你在实际考虑这个问题吗？你在为此做任何事情吗？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy Diet, nutrition, I try to think about investment strategies 饮食，营养，我试着考虑投资策略,
——>> which pay out in a million years, yeah. 那些在一百万年后还能有回报的，是的。
Host Really? 真的吗？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy Yeah of course. 当然。
Host What do you mean “of course”? “当然”是什么意思？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy Why wouldn’t you? 你为什么不呢？
——>> If you think this is what’s going to happen, you should try that. 如果你认为这会发生，你应该尝试。
——>> So if we get AI right, now what happens to economy? 所以，如果我们正确掌握了AI，经济会怎样？
——>> We talked about world coin, we talked about free labor, what’s money? 我们谈过Worldcoin，谈过免费劳动力，钱是什么？
——>> Is it now Bitcoin, do you invest in that? 现在是比特币吗？你投资那个吗？
——>> Is there something else which becomes the only resource we cannot fake? 有没有其他东西成为我们无法伪造的唯一资源？
——>> So those things are very important research topics. 所以这些是非常重要的研究课题。
——>> So you’re investing in Bitcoin aren’t you? 所以你在投资比特币，对吧？
Host Yeah. 是的。
——>> Because it’s a… 因为它是……
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy It’s the only scarce resource. 它是唯一稀缺的资源。
——>> Nothing else has scarcity. Everything else, if price goes up will make more. 其他一切都不具有稀缺性。任何其他东西，只要价格上涨，就会生产更多。
——>> I can make as much gold as you want given a proper price point, 只要价格合适，你想要多少黄金我都能造出来,
——>> you cannot make more bitcoin. 你无法造出更多比特币。
Host Some people say Bitcoin is just this thing on a computer that we all agreed was valuable, 有些人说比特币只是电脑上的一个东西，我们都同意它有价值,
——>> we are a thing on a computer, 而我们也是电脑上的东西,
——>> remember? 记得吗？
——>> Okay, so, I mean not investment advice, but investment advice. 好吧，所以，我的意思不是投资建议，但算是投资建议。（笑）
——>> It’s hilarious how that’s one of those things where they tell you it’s not, 这很好笑，就像那些他们告诉你”不是”的事情,
——>> but you know it is immediately. There is a… your call is important to us. 但你立刻知道它就是。”您的来电对我们很重要”这句话,
——>> that means your call is of zero importance, 意味着你的来电零重要性,
——>> and investment is like that. 投资建议也是这样。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy Yeah, when they say no investment advice, 是的，当他们说”不构成投资建议”时,
——>> it’s definitely investment advice. 那绝对是投资建议。
——>> But it’s my investment advice, okay so, you’re bullish on bitcoin, 但这是我的投资建议。好吧，所以，你对比特币看好,
——>> because it’s… it can’t be messed with. 因为它……它无法被干涉。
——>> It is the only thing which we know how much there is in the universe. 它是唯一我们知道宇宙中有多少数量的东西。
——>> So gold there could be an asteroid made out of pure gold heading towards us, devaluing it, 所以黄金呢？可能有一颗纯金的小行星正向我们飞来，让它贬值,
——>> Well, also killing all of us, but Bitcoin I know 嗯，同时也会杀死我们所有人。但比特币我知道
——>> exactly the numbers and even the 21 million is an upper limit, 确切的数量，甚至2100万只是一个上限,
——>> how many are lost, passwords forgotten, 有多少丢失了，密码忘记了,
——>> I don’t know what satoshi is doing with his million, 我不知道中本聪拿着他那一百万个在做什么,
——>> it’s getting scarcer every day, 它每天都在变得更稀缺,
——>> while more and more people are trying to accumulate it. 而越来越多的人试图积累它。
——>> Some people worry that it could be hacked with a supercomputer. 有些人担心它可能被超级计算机黑客攻击。
——>> A quantum computer can break that algorithm, 量子计算机可以破解那个算法,
——>> there is strategies for switching to quantum resistant cryptography for that, 有策略可以切换到抗量子密码学来应对,
——>> and quantum computers are still kind of weak . 而且量子计算机目前还比较弱。
Host Do you think there’s any changes to my life 你认为在这次谈话之后，我的生活需要做出任何改变吗？
——>> that I should make, following this conversation. 你认为在这次谈话之后，我的生活需要做出任何改变吗？
——>> Is there anything that I should do differently the minute I walk out of this door? 在我走出这扇门的那一刻，有什么我应该做得不一样的吗？
——>> I assume you already invest in Bitcoin heavily. 我猜你已经重仓投资比特币了。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy Yes, I’m an investor in Bitcoin. 是的，我是比特币的投资者。
Host Is this financial advice? 这是财务建议吗？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy No. Just, you seem to be winning, maybe it’s your simulation, 不。只是，你看起来已经是赢家了，也许这是你的模拟,
——>> you’re rich, handsome, you have famous people hang out with you like, 你富有、英俊，有名人和你一起玩,
——>> that’s pretty good, 这相当不错,
——>> keep it up! 继续保持！
——>> Robin Hansen has a paper about how to live in a simulation, Robin Hanson有一篇关于如何在模拟中生活的论文,
——>> what you should be doing in it, and your goal is to do exactly that, 你应该在里面做什么，你的目标就是去做那些事,
——>> you want to be interesting, you want to hang out with famous people, 你想变得有趣，你想和名人交往,
——>> so they don’t shut it down, so you are part of a, 这样他们才不会关闭它。所以你是一个……,
——>> part of someone’s actually watching on pay-per-view or something like that. 某人实际上在按次付费观看的一部分，或者类似的东西。
Host Oh, I don’t know if you want to be watched on pay-per-view, 哦，我不知道你是否想被按次付费观看,
——>> because then you can be the… Then they shut you down if no one’s watching, 因为那样你可能会……如果没人看，他们就会关闭你,
——>> why would they play it? 他们为什么还要播放呢？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy I’m saying don’t you want to fly into the Radar, 我是说，你难道不想进入雷达的视野吗？
——>> don’t you want to be the guy just living a normal life 你难道不想成为那个……过着正常生活的人,
——>> that the the masters… 而主宰者……
Host Those NPCs, nobody wants to be an NPC, 那些NPC（非玩家角色），没人想当NPC,
——>> Are you religious? 你信教吗？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy Not in any traditional sense, but I believe in simulation hypothesis, 不是任何传统意义上的，但我相信模拟假说,
——>> which has a super intelligent being. So… 这包含一个超级智能存在。所以……
Host But you don’t believe in the like, you know, the religious books. 但你不相信，你知道，宗教经典。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy So different religions, this religion will tell you don’t work Saturday, 所以不同的宗教，这个宗教告诉你周六别工作,
——>> this one, don’t work Sunday, don’t eat pigs, don’t eat cows, 那个宗教说周日别工作，别吃猪，别吃牛,
——>> they just have local traditions on top of that theory, 它们只是在这个理论之上附加了地方传统,
——>> that’s all it is, they’re all the same religion, they all worship superintelligent being, 仅此而已。它们都是同一个宗教，都崇拜超级智能存在,
——>> they all think this world is not the main one, 都认为这个世界不是主要的那个,
——>> and they argue about which animal not to eat, 它们争论不该吃哪种动物,
——>> skip the local flavors, concentrate on what do all the religions have in common, 忽略地方特色，专注于所有宗教的共同点,
——>> and that’s the interesting part. They all think there is something greater than humans, 那才是有趣的部分。它们都认为有比人类更伟大的东西,
——>> very capable, all knowing, all powerful. Then I run a computer game, 非常有能力，无所不知，无所不能。那么，如果我运行一个电脑游戏,
——>> for those characters in a game, I am that, I can change the whole world, 对于游戏里的那些角色来说，我就是那个存在，我可以改变整个世界,
——>> I can shut it down, I know everything in that world. 我可以关闭它，我知道那个世界里的一切。
Host It’s funny I was thinking earlier on when we started talking about the simulation theory, 有趣的是，我之前在我们开始谈论模拟理论时就在想,
——>> that there might be something innate in us, 可能我们内心有一种天生的东西,
——>> that has been left from the creator almost like a clue, like an intuition, 几乎是创造者留下的线索，像一种直觉,
——>> because that’s what we tend to have through history, 因为历史上我们一直有这种直觉,
——>> humans have this intuition, — yeah. 人类有这种直觉，——是的。
——>> that all the things you said are true, that there’s this somebody above and that… 所有你说的事情都是真的，有一个高高在上的存在，而且……
——>> We have generations of people 我们有一代代人
——>> who were religious who believed God told them and was there 他们信仰宗教，相信上帝告诉了他们，上帝存在,
——>> and give them books. 并给了他们经典。
——>> And that has been passed on for many generations, 那已经传承了许多代,
——>> this is probably one of the earliest generations 我们这一代可能是最早
——>> not to have universal religious belief. 不普遍信仰宗教的几代人之一。
——>> What if those people are telling the truth, 如果那些人说的是真话呢？
——>> what if those people that say, God came to them and said something, 如果那些说上帝降临并对他们说了些什么的人……
——>> imagine that, imagine if that was part of this. 想象一下，想象如果那是这（模拟）的一部分。
——>> I’m looking at the news today, something happened an hour ago, 我看着今天的新闻，一小时前发生了某事,
——>> and I’m getting different conflicting results, 我得到的是相互矛盾的结果,
——>> I can’t even get with cameras, with drones, with like guy on twitter there, 即使有摄像头、无人机、推特上的现场的人，我仍然不知道发生了什么,
——>> I still don’t know what happened. 我仍然不知道发生了什么。
——>> And you think three thousand years ago, 而你认为三千年前,
——>> we have accurate record of translations, and of course not. 我们有准确的翻译记录？当然没有。
——>> You know, these conversations you have around AI safety, 你知道，你进行的这些关于AI安全的对话,
——>> do you think they make people feel good? 你认为它们让人感觉好吗？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy I don’t know if they feel good or bad, but people find it interesting, 我不知道让人感觉好还是坏，但人们觉得它有趣,
——>> it’s one of those topics. So I can have a conversation about different cures for cancer, 这是那些话题之一。所以我可以和一个普通人谈论不同的癌症疗法,
——>> with an average person, but everyone has opinions about AI, 但每个人对AI都有看法,
——>> everyone has opinions about simulation, 每个人对模拟都有看法,
——>> it’s interesting that you don’t have to be highly educated, 有趣的是，你不需要受过高等教育,
——>> or a genius to understand those concepts. 或是个天才才能理解这些概念。
Host Because I tend to think that it makes me feel not positive, 因为我倾向于认为它让我感觉并不积极,
——>> and I understand that, but I’ve always been of the opinion that 我理解这一点，但我一直认为,
——>> you shouldn’t live a world of delusion, 你不应该生活在一个错觉的世界里,
——>> where you’re just seeking to be positive, have sort of positive things said, 只寻求听到积极的事情,
——>> and avoid uncomfortable conversations. 避免不舒服的对话。
——>> Actually progress often in my life comes from like having uncomfortable conversations, 实际上，我生活中的进步往往来自于进行不舒服的对话,
——>> becoming aware about something, and then at least being informed about 意识到某些事情，然后至少能了解
——>> how I can do something about it. 我能为此做些什么。
——>> And so, I think that’s why… that’s why I asked the question 所以，我想这就是为什么……我问这个问题,
——>> because I assume most people will… should, 因为我假设大多数人会……应该,
——>> if that, you know, if they’re normal human beings listen to these conversations 如果他们是正常人，听了这些对话,
——>> and go— 会觉得——
——>> Gosh, that’s scary and this is concerning 天啊，这很可怕，这令人担忧,
——>> and then, I keep coming back to this point, 然后，我不断回到这一点,
——>> which is like what…what do I do with that energy? 那就是……我该拿这种情绪怎么办？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy Yeah, but I’m trying to point out, this is not different than so many conversations, 是的，但我想指出，这和许多其他对话没什么不同,
——>> we can talk about, oh, there is starvation in this region, genocide in this region, 我们可以谈论，哦，那个地区有饥荒，那个地区有种族灭绝,
——>> you’re all dying, cancer is spreading, atism is up… 你们都在走向死亡，癌症在蔓延，自闭症在增加……
——>> You can always find something to be very depressed about, 你总能找到一些让你非常抑郁的事情,
——>> and nothing you can do about it, 而又无能为力,
——>> and we’re very good at concentrating on what we can change, 我们非常擅长专注于我们能改变的事情,
——>> what we are good at, and basically 我们擅长的事情，而且基本上
——>> not trying to embrace the whole world as a local environment, 不试图将整个世界作为本地环境来接受,
——>> so historically you grew up with a tribe, you had a dozen people around you, 所以历史上，你生长在一个部落里，身边有十几个人,
——>> if something happened to one of them 如果其中一人出了什么事,
——>> it was very rare, it was an accident, now if I go on the internet, 那很罕见，是个意外。现在如果我上网,
——>> somebody gets killed everywhere all the time, 每时每刻都有人在某个地方被杀,
——>> somehow thousands of people are reported to me every day, 每天都有成千上万的人被报道给我,
——>> I don’t even have time to notice. 我甚至没时间注意到。
——>> It’s just too much, so I have to put filters in place, 信息太多了，所以我必须设置过滤器,
——>> and I think this topic is what people are very good at filtering as like, 我认为这个话题是人们非常擅长过滤掉的，就像,
——>> this was this entertaining talk I went to, kind of like a show and the moment I exit it ends, “这是我参加的一个有趣的演讲，就像一场秀，一旦我离开就结束了”,
——>> so usually I would go give a keynote at a conference, 所以通常我会在会议上做主题演讲,
——>> and I tell them basically you’re gonna die, 我告诉他们基本上你们都会死,
——>> you have two years left, any questions? And people’d be like, will I lose my job? 你们还有两年时间，有什么问题吗？然后人们会问，我会失业吗？
——>> How do I lubricate my sex robot, like all sorts of nonsense, 怎么给我的性爱机器人润滑？各种无厘头的问题,
——>> clearly not understanding what I’m trying to say there, 显然没有理解我想表达的意思,
——>> and those are good questions, interesting questions, 这些都是好问题，有趣的问题,
——>> but not fully embracing the result, they’re still in their bubble of local versus global, 但没有完全接受结果，他们仍然处于本地与全局的泡泡里。
Host And the people that disagree with you the most, as it relates to AI safety, 那些最不同意你观点的人，关于AI安全,
——>> what is it that they say? 他们通常说什么？
——>> what are their counter arguments typically? 他们的反驳论点是什么？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy So, many don’t engage at all, like they have no background knowledge in a subject, 所以，很多人根本不参与，比如他们对这个主题没有任何背景知识,
——>> they never write a single book, single paper, 从未写过一本书、一篇论文,
——>> not just by me, by anyone they may be even working in a field, 不仅是我写的，任何人写的他们可能都没看过，他们甚至可能在这个领域工作,
——>> so they are doing some machine learning work for some company, 所以他们为某家公司做一些机器学习工作,
——>> maximizing AD clicks and to them, those systems are very narrow, 最大化广告点击率，对他们来说，那些系统非常狭隘,
——>> and then they hear that obviously AI is gonna take over the world, 然后他们听说AI显然要接管世界,
——>> like it has no hands, how would it do that? It’s nonsense, 它连手都没有，怎么做到？这简直是胡说,
——>> this guy is crazy, has a beard, why would I listen to him, right? That’s… 这家伙疯了，留着胡子，我为什么要听他的，对吧？那是……
——>> Then they start reading a little bit, they go okay, so, maybe AI can be dangerous, yeah. 然后他们开始读一点东西，他们会说，好吧，也许AI可能是危险的，是的。
——>> I see that, but we always solve problems in the past, we’re going to solve them again, 我明白，但我们过去总是解决问题，我们会再次解决的,
——>> I mean at some point we fix the computer virus or something, so it’s the same, 我的意思是，我们最终修复了电脑病毒之类的，所以是一样的,
——>> and basically, the more exposure they have, the less likely they are to keep that position. 基本上，他们接触得越多，就越不可能保持那个立场。
——>> I know many people who went from super careless developer to safety researcher, 我认识很多人从超级粗心的开发者转变为安全研究员,
——>> I don’t know anyone who went from— I’ve worried about AI safety to like, 我不认识任何人从——我曾经担心AI安全——到——
——>> there is nothing to worry about. 没什么好担心的。
Host What are your closing statements? 你的结束陈述是什么？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy Let’s make sure there is not a closing statement we need to give for humanity, 让我们确保不需要为人类做结束陈述。
——>> let’s make sure we stay in charge, in control, 让我们确保我们保持主导地位，保持控制权,
——>> let’s make sure we only build things which are beneficial to us, 让我们确保我们只建造对我们有益的东西,
——>> let’s make sure people who are making those decisions are remotely qualified to do it. 让我们确保做这些决定的人至少是合格的。
——>> They are good not just at science, engineering and business, 他们不仅擅长科学、工程和商业,
——>> but also have moral and ethical standards, 而且拥有道德和伦理标准,
——>> and if you’re doing something which impacts other people, 如果你在做影响他人的事情,
——>> you should ask their permission before you do that. 你应该在这样做之前征得他们的同意。
Host If there was one button in front of you, and it would, 如果你面前有一个按钮，按下它会,
——>> shut down every AI company in the world right now, 立刻关闭世界上每一家AI公司,
——>> permanently, with the inability for anybody to start a new one, 永久性地，并且无人能再创办新的,
——>> would you press the button? 你会按下这个按钮吗？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy Are we losing narrow AI or just super intelligent AGI part? 我们是失去狭义AI，还是只失去超级智能/AGI部分？
Host Losing all of AI. 失去所有AI。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy That’s a hard question, because AI is extremely important, 这是个难题，因为AI极其重要,
——>> it controls stock market, power plants, it controls hospitals, 它控制着股市、发电厂，控制着医院,
——>> it would be a devastating accident, 那将是一场毁灭性的事故,
——>> millions of people would lose their lives. 数百万人会丧生。
Host Okay, we can keep narrow AI. 好吧，我们可以保留狭义AI。
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy Oh yeah, that’s what we want, we want Narrow AI to do all this for us, 哦，是的，那正是我们想要的。我们想要狭义AI为我们做所有这些事,
——>> but not “God” we don’t control doing things to us, 但不想要一个我们无法控制的”上帝”对我们做事,
——>> so you would stop it, you would stop AGI and super intelligence. 所以你会阻止它，你会阻止AGI和超级智能。
——>> We have AGI, what we have today is great for almost everything, 我们已经有AGI了，我们今天拥有的技术对于几乎所有事情来说都很棒,
——>> we can make secretaries out of it, 99 percent of economic 我们可以用它来做秘书。当前技术
——>> potential of current technology has not been deployed. 99%的经济潜力尚未被部署。
——>> We make AI so quickly, it doesn’t have time to propagate through the industry, 我们制造AI如此之快，以至于它没有时间传播到工业界,
——>> through technology, something like half of all jobs are considered BS jobs, 技术界。好像所有工作中约有一半被认为是”狗屁工作”（bullshit jobs）,
——>> they don’t need to be done, bullshit jobs. 根本不需要做，狗屁工作。
——>> So those can be not even automated, they can be just gone, 所以那些甚至不需要自动化，可以直接取消,
——>> but I’m saying, we can replace 60 percent of jobs today with existing models, 但我想说的是，我们今天就可以用现有模型替代60%的工作,
——>> we’re not done that, so if the goal is to grow economy to develop, 我们还没有做到，所以如果目标是发展经济,
——>> we can do it for decades, without having to create super intelligence, as soon as possible. 我们可以在几十年里做到，而不必急于创造超级智能。
Host Do you think globally, especially in the western world, 你认为在全球范围内，尤其是在西方世界,
——>> unemployment’s only going to go up from here? 失业率只会从这里开始上升吗？
——>> Do you think relatively this is the low of unemployment? 你认为相对而言，现在是失业率的低谷吗？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy I mean it fluctuates a lot with other factors, there are wars, there’s economic cycles, 我的意思是，它随着其他因素波动很大，有战争，有经济周期,
——>> but overall, the more jobs you automate, 但总的来说，你自动化的工作越多,
——>> and the higher is the intellectual necessity to start a job that fewer people qualify. 开始一份工作所需的智力要求就越高，符合条件的人就越少。
——>> So if we plotted it on a graph over the next 20 years, 所以如果我们把它绘制成未来20年的图表,
——>> you’re assuming unemployment’s gradually going to go up over that? 你假设失业率在那期间会逐渐上升？
——>> I think so, fewer and fewer people would be able to contribute already, 我想是的，越来越少的人能够做出贡献,
——>> we kind of understand it, because we created minimum wage, 我们已经有点理解这一点了，因为我们创造了最低工资,
——>> we understood some people don’t contribute enough economic value to get paid anything, 我们理解有些人贡献的经济价值不足以获得任何报酬,
——>> really, so, we had to force employers to pay them more than they worth. 真的，所以我们必须强迫雇主支付超过他们价值的工资。
——>> And we haven’t updated it. It’s what 725 federally in US. 而且我们还没有更新它。在美国联邦标准是7.25美元吧？
——>> If you keep up with economy, it should be like 25 dollars an hour now, 如果跟上经济，现在应该是每小时25美元左右,
——>> which means all these people making less are not contributing enough economic output 这意味着所有赚得更少的人，他们的经济产出不足以
——>> to justify what they’re getting paid. 证明他们获得的报酬是合理的。
Host We have a closing tradition on this podcast, 我们这个播客有一个结束传统,
——>> where the last guest leaves a question for the next guest, 上一位嘉宾会给下一位嘉宾留下一个问题,
——>> not knowing who they’re leaving it for, and the question left for you is 不知道是留给谁的。留给你的问题是：
——>> what are the most important characteristics for a friend, colleague or mate? 对于朋友、同事或伴侣来说，最重要的特质是什么？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy Those are very different types of people, but for all of them, loyalty is number one. 这是非常不同类型的人，但对于所有这些人来说，忠诚是第一位的。
Host And what does loyalty mean to you? 忠诚对你意味着什么？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy Not betraying you, not screwing you, not cheating on you despite the temptation, 不背叛你，不陷害你，不受诱惑而出轨或欺骗你,
——>> Despite the world being as it is, situation, environment. 无论环境如何，世界如何。
Host Dr. Roman thank you so much, Roman博士，非常感谢你,
——>> thank you so much for doing what you do, 非常感谢你所做的一切,
——>> because you’re starting a conversation and pushing forward conversation, 因为你正在开启并推动对话,
——>> and doing research that is incredibly important, 进行着极其重要的研究,
——>> and you’re doing it in the face of a lot of Skeptics I’d say, there’s a lot of people 而且你是在面对许多怀疑者的情况下这么做的。我认为，有很多人
——>> that have a lot of incentives to discredit what you’re saying and what you do, 有很多动机去诋毁你所说的和所做的,
——>> because they have their own incentives, and they have billions of dollars on the line, 因为他们有自己的利益考量，涉及数十亿美元,
——>> and they have their jobs on the line potentially as well, so… 也可能关系到他们的工作。所以……
——>> it’s really important that there are people out there that are willing to… 外面有人愿意……
——>> I guess stick their head above the parapet and come on shows like this, 我猜，愿意挺身而出，来到像这样的节目,
——>> and go on big platforms and talk about the unexplainable, unpredictable, uncontrollable 走上大平台，谈论我们正走向的那个
——>> future that we’re heading towards. 不可解释、不可预测、不可控制的未来。
——>> So thank you for doing that, this book which, which I think everybody should check out 所以感谢你这样做。这本书，我想每个人都应该看看,
——>> if they want a continuation of this conversation. 如果他们想继续这场对话。
——>> I think was published in 2024, there’s a holistic view on many of the things 我想是2024年出版的，涵盖了今天我们谈到的
——>> we’ve talked about today, preventing AI failures and much 许多事情的整体观点，包括预防AI失败等等更多内容,
——>> much more, and I’m going to link it below for anybody that wants to read it. 我会把链接放在下面，供任何想阅读的人参考。
——>> If people want to learn more from you, if they want to go further into work, 如果人们想从你这里了解更多，想进一步了解你的工作,
——>> what’s the best thing for them to do, where do they go? 他们最好怎么做？去哪里？
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy They can follow me, follow me on Facebook, 他们可以关注我，在Facebook上关注我,
——>> follow me on X, just don’t follow me home, very important! 在X上关注我，只是别跟我回家，非常重要！
Host Okay, so I’ll put your twitter, your X account as well below, 好的，我也会把你的X账号放在下面,
——>> so people can follow you there. And yeah, thank you so much for doing what you do, 方便大家关注。是的，非常感谢你所做的一切,
——>> it’s remarkably eye-opening, and it’s given me so much food for thought, 这非常令人大开眼界，给了我很多思考的材料,
——>> and it’s actually convinced me more that we are living in a simulation, 它实际上让我更相信我们生活在模拟中,
——>> but it’s also made me think quite differently of religion 但也让我对宗教的看法相当不同,
——>> I have to say, because you’re right, all the religions, 我必须说，因为你说得对，所有的宗教,
——>> when you get away from the sort of the local traditions, 当你抛开那些地方传统,
——>> they do all point at the same thing and actually, 它们都指向同一件事，而且实际上,
——>> if they are all pointing at the same thing, then maybe the fundamental truths 如果它们都指向同一件事，那么也许存在于它们之间的
——>> that exist across them should be something I pay more attention to, 基本真理我应该更加关注,
——>> things like loving thy neighbor, 比如爱你的邻居,
——>> things like the fact that we are all one, that there’s a divine creator and maybe also 比如我们是一体的事实，有一个神圣的创造者，也许还有
——>> they all seem to have consequence beyond this life, 它们都关注此生之后的后果,
——>> so maybe I should be thinking more about how I behave in this life 所以也许我应该更多地思考我在此生的行为,
——>> and where I might end up thereafter. 以及我之后可能去往哪里。
——>> Roman, thank you. — Amen. Roman，谢谢你。——阿门。
